[Brian,
Sunday January 13, 2008 at 2:18pm]
Master Solvers Forum #1
I always like those in old Bridge Worlds. So, here we go. Answer in the comments.
Problem 1a:
You are Earth's Lost Colony. [3 Players, the opponents are Epsilon Eridini and Old Earth]. Your opening hand is:
- Alien Tech. Institute
- Alien Rosetta Stone World
- Destroyed World
- Drop Ships
- Galactic Engineers
- Spice World
What do you discard and what's your first turn plan?
Problem 1b: As above, but instead of Drop ships you have New Economy.
I've uploaded my spreadsheet of card names/effects. Let me know if you see any errors. (For some reason a card or two doesn't like the sort fuction. I've never seen that before.
Related Posts (on one page):
Galactic Engineers / Destroyed World is second place, and I felt like Rare worlds were likely (or, say, if I saw them during a turn 1 Explore), I might switch to that.
If I thought someone else was going to Settle I might be daring and choose Produce, otherwise I would Settle.
I'd play Produce, and hope that one of the others Settles. If they do, great, play Spice world (keep Gal. Eng.), and then next turn Consume Trade for 4. If they did Explore/Settle each turn you'll be able to play Galactic Engineers first. Then you can Exp/Trade twice in a row for 10 cards. Great by turn #3.
If they don't pick Settle on turn #1 still consume trade on 2 with the plan to play Spice World on this settle. If no settle again you still net two cards.
Considering your opponents, my first reaction would be to produce, but I dont think that this is necessarily the correct play. My approach would be to consider what would happen in the event of a develop phase - you would be left out in the cold.
Id consider:-
Explore +1 +1 - if you are going the novelty goods production track, you really wouldnt mind spice world and destroyed world down. You probably will be producing and therefore dont REALLY need galactic engineers (which is one of my favourite planets). Therefore, an early explore will allow you to lay down these cards that you need as well as giving you a shot to make use of a develop from your opponents.
If you kept the rosetta stone you could go a +5 instead, but I dont think this is warranted. Perhaps if New Sparta was about instead of old earth.
but better:
Settle Destroyed World ditching galactic engineers (marginal call, but I think drop ships allow you much more flexibility) for a 2nd turn consume/trade. I think this is better than produce/consume because 2 cards at the end of turn 2 is not as good as a rebate at the settle phase of turn 1 and 3 cards at the end of turn 2. Turn 3 should be set up as a produce in all likelihood.
It's really hard to let go of the two alien cards. How often do you see such a powerful base to build a strategy on? How often do you get a 6 and the key supporting card on turn 1? There are a decent number of Alien cards in the deck. It's a gamble, but the whole game is a gamble, and this seems a pretty reasonable one. If you go Explore +1/+1, you can leech a settle to get down the Alien Rosetta Stone on turn 1, then go Explore +0/+5 in search of Alien worlds to play for free. You give up on Develop until you can get and cycle an Alien Tech good or can do enough free Settles to get the cards, but you've got a built-in produce/consume leech. I think you can just barely bootstrap it, with the risk being you may miss out on develop. Best case is, everyone else does explore on Turn 1 as well, you then do a Settle turn 2 and are then in good shape to do an Explore on turn 3 and then take advantage of whatever else everyone else is doing. Worst case, someone else ends up playing a super-fast luxury goods strategy, but everything has a risk.
The other good thing about keeping the Alien cards plus, say, the Spice World is that you can see how things develop on turn 1 and jump one way or the other. If you do Explore +1/+1, and see what everyone else does, role-selection-wise, you aren't quite committed. Then if you get a good Alien world, and everyone else is doing Settle, or if everyone is doing Explore, you can go the Alien path. If the cards suck, or if there are lots of Develop actions, you can keep the Alien Tech, buy the Drop Ships, and hedge your bets.
2. The Alien proposal does not attract me. I have played a number of games where I had a rapidly expanding base of alien worlds but with no economy - consume powers are conspicuously absent and I just see many hail marys with consume trades thrown in to fill up on cards. I have not got this to gel, but maybe others have been luckier/smarter.
3. Put it down to noobness, but I really dont like 6 cost developments in my opening hand unless they are galactic federation.
The Safe play (Keep Spice World and Galactic Engineers and either the Alien cards or DS/DW):
Turn 1: Produce
Turn 2: Consume/Trade
Two chances to get a Settle and Spice World out before the Trade.
The Agressive play (keep Destroyed World and Spice World and Alien cards or DS/GE):
Turn 1: Consume/Trade
Turn 2: Consume/Trade (if it didn't work turn 1) or Produce (if it did).
If I'm feeling aggressive and since Alpha Centauri isn't in the game I might go Consume/Trade on the first turn hoping for the Settle to place Destroyed World. That would give a half step advantage and ideally would net a decent card for a turn 2 Develop. I don't like this play too much in a three player game where the odds of a Settle aren't as good as in a four player.
The Alien play (pitch Galactic Engineers and Destroyed World):
Turn 1: Explore/+1,+1. If Settle play Spice World.
Turn 2: Produce, assuming no one else Produced first turn. :)
Turn 3: Consume/Trade
By far the riskiest option, but worth trying. If decent low military worlds are drawn early go Drop Ships before Alien Rosetta Stone World. If a lucky Alien World shows up go for Alien Rosetta Stone World or (if enough explores happen) Alien Tech Institute.
Problem 1b:
This reinforces the production route and makes me more likely to go Produce, Consume/Trade first two turns, pitching the Alien cards. Definitely hold onto New Economy, Spice World, Destroyed World, GE.
I have a fear if you had destroyed world and galactic engineers out you would have no chance of ever leeching production phases from your opponents (assuming you are going the novelty consume/produce route that E'sLC and Spice World suggest). I would like to keep drop ships to keep a formidable military option open, even if it is terribly expensive in the early game.
Very enjoyable thread!
But I think you have to do what your cards are telling you to do. In this case, you've got some very powerful Military and Alien cards available to you. I don't think you can walk away from those and try to go for a prototypical Luxury goods produce/consume strategy just because you have your homeworld plus one planet. The highest score I've ever seen was notched by a player who went the Alien route.
So, on reflection, I think I'd keep the two alien cards, the drop ships, and the destroyed world. Explore +1/+1 on turn one. Then either drop the Destroyed World and Consume on turn 2 if a Settle is available, or do Explore +1/+1 again, depending on how things develop and what you get. You'll have early-game risk if things go against you, but that's OK. It's a short game. I'd rather bet on something I've got in my opening hand than take a flier.
It's true, the two alien cards are nice, but they do very little in terms of economy. If you go that route and don't manage to find any alien windfalls, you're sunk -- it will take at least 6 more cards to just get those two out, and where are you making those 6 cards from? Selling your wimpy novelty?
So, now that I've decided to drop the two alien cards, what do I play? Choosing Settle in order to get Galactic Engineers seems ludicrous, but the other three are viable. But the drawback with choosing either Develop or Settle is, what are you doing to do if one of your opponents chooses the other one? If that happens, you're almost certainly losing a tempo, and it's not clear if the card you're putting out is worth the tempo loss. You're going to be feeling pretty unhappy if you bring out Drop Ships and then can't find any small military worlds to conquer. Better to pick Explore; that way, you have a reasonable play if only one of Develop or Settle is chosen, and if both of them are chosen, at least you get to look at three cards in an attempt to find a cheap Military World.
To put another way, let suppose you know that the best possible cards for your hand (I would guess Pirate World and Consumer Markets) are somewhere in the first 10 cards in
the draw pile. What maximizes your chance of getting one of them while still retaining something to go with it? I think Explore +1,+1 is best for that.
If they Exp/Dev on turn 1 you are much better off having produced, unless you are relying on the extra explore card being a perfect development for your hand.
For 1b, though, there's not enough military to get Alien worlds without another booster, so I'd go production.
However, I'd hold onto at least one alien card, though its likely youll throw it away early if your opponents arent exploring (or if you get something better in an explore).
The spice world combines very well with your homeworld, it lets you sell for +2 and gives you 2 novelty production,
The best way to go is turn 1 produce, turn 2 trade. If an opponent settles in either of the first two turns you'll get 4 cards from this. If they dont, you gained +1 card per role choice just like them. The worst thing that can happen is they'll just develop, but probably youll get a settle early on, or they'll explore.
So I'd hold:
Spice World (our planned play)
Galactic Engineers (very versatily, works with any windfall world you draw).
Alien Tech Institute (its just money probably, if an opponent settles)
Alien Rosetta Stone World (also probably just money)
And Discard:
Destroyed World (its normally decent but here you want to trade with spice world instead)
Drop Ships (or maybe keep this instead of an alien card)
Turn 1: Produce, Turn 2: Trade.
If opponents settle: Get spice world.
If opponents explore: If you see something helpful keep it, discard alien stuff, if you dont, use it as money.
If opponents develop: Thats bad, but at least you are going to get some trading income, hopefully they also settle by turn 2.
1b: New Economy is a better thing to hold than the alien stuff. I'd hold it instead of an alien card and then not discard it. Its going to score well with a production strategy.
The only reason to go Explore first turn seems to be to hold onto the cards you have or to get something better. If I'm holding I'd rather keep the Alien cards/Drop Ships than the less ambitious DW/GE. Besides Spice World is effectively DW/GE all wrapped up in a single card. The only advantage of DW is you can get the Consume/Trade a turn earlier and if going for diversity it's not Novelty.
But---I very much do not want to throw those two cards into the discard pile together. The discards are rarely well-shuffled, and I don't want someone's getting that pair together, so I'd save one of them and use it as money early on.
I'd throw away both alien cards. In the words of Admiral Akbar 'IT'S A TRAP!' Alien Rosetta stone world is rarely good early on, unless you can play something like Alien Robot Sentry.
New Economy isn't great early on. You'd do better to improve your production capacity first.
What else am I missing by not thinking deeply enough? What level am I actually on? For example, if I draw the Avian Uplift World (2 Mil) and a Expedition Force in my opening hand as Old Earth, what impact does that have on the odds of the New Sparta player playing Settle on turn 1. In fact, I don't know the odds in general, horrors, of New Sparta having a 1 or 2 defense non-Novelty windfall world in their opening draw. [Okay, I now know. It's 37%...and 33% if I have one in mine.]
Brian, I blame you. You clearly need to post much more often on Race, and start addressing these higher level strategies in more detail. I expect to see posts on the application of Bayesian statistics, shuffle tracking, semi-bluffs, and card counting to Race.
If I get cards aligned with novelty, I use the alien cards as money (separately, as Jeff suggests) later. If I get alien worlds - particularly the robot sentry - I'll aim down that path.
Of course, I'm way too fond of exploring...
Spice World is among the best opening cards for ELC IMO. It allows you to both trade for lots of cards for a quick ramp up and gives you two producers to head for a Novelty produce/consume strategy long-term. So, I'm just not that interested in the DW and GE. I'd have to put down two windfall worlds, if I go the produce/consume route, before GE becomes interesting. So, they're an easy discard.
The Drop Ships could possibly be useful if I draw the 4 or 5 military Alien windfall on another player's explore and no one settles on turn 1...
Mostly, I agree that expensive/long-term opening cards are a distraction; so I would be repeating the mantra of "cards are money, be willing to spend them early" to myself. But given how powerful Spice World is for ELC and how weak DW and GE are in this position, why not leave open the Alien possibility?
Especially since explores on both T1 and T2, with no T1 Settle and a T2 settle, could happen. If the cards you draw are useless, pay for Spice World with them, sell for 4 cards, look at them, and decide whether to go for an Alien strategy or not at that point. OTOH, if the cards you get in the explores (under this line) are useful, spend the Alien cards for the Spice World and drive on...
He's right on discarding the destroyed world/galactic engineers too, I shouldve dumped those and kept the drop ships, in case I get more things to go wit hit later.
Basically the plan is spice, and if you have to discard the alien cards to afford it you do, but if you dont have to discard them then you hold them in case you later get stuff to go with them.