[Brian,
Sunday May 10, 2009 at 9:52pm]
Seen in the wild
AKJTxx
--
KQJT98x
--
More amazingly, this hand sat when partner got doubled in 5H. The things you see online. (Although, the player self-listed as intermediate which means that I sympathize instead of mock).
Update: Just to make clear, I was serious about sympathy. Partner opened 1 Heart. Our beginner jumpshifted to 2 Diamonds and then bid 2 spades over the (expected) 2 hearts. Now opener (self-listed as expert) bid five hearts.
I understood what he meant by that ("I have good hearts but two club losers"), but I didn't a year ago.
1) Qs not in partner's hand
2) Qs protected
3) Dummy cannot ruff on the Qs
The other question is how do you decide whether to risk the finesse or just play the AK?
Lets say that dummy has 2 low spades, so opponents have 5 spades, they didn't bid so no information, and the dummy ruff can't happen. Dummy takes the opening club lead with an Ace, do you try the finesse? How does the play change if dummy has 3 low spades instead?
My assumption is that since with 5 spades out, the finesse is a 50% chance, and a single/doubleton queen is only a ~40% chance, try the finesse. With 4 spades just have dummy lead trump to draw the Ad, and then play the AKs and hope for a 2-2 split. Am I missing something?
Still, awkward if you feel your partner is more experienced than you and so should know what they're doing.
The first question is harder to answer given that there is bidding. Partner showed lots of hearts which reduces the chance he has any given non-heart. But he showed a good hand, which increases the chance that he has any given queen. On the other hand, he bid 5H without knowing you have the SA, so he almost has to have a spade void, the DA and probably one or two more, two little clubs, and a boatload of hearts. Assuming he's not nuts (bad assumption), he should have something like --- AKQ10xxxxx Ax xx. On the gripping hand, he didn't bid 3H over 2D, so his suit shouldn't be good enough to bid 5H later. So we don't really have any idea what he holds, just what he thinks he holds. Trying to guess that is the way to madness.