The Tao of Gaming

Now that I'm pushing fifty for Power Grid on BSW, some thoughts are in order.

• Bid up on the permanent (5+ city) plants. A 10-15 premium is usually worth it. Paying double (once you are close to stage 3) may be reasonable.

• I think that in my first games the board position didn't matter nearly so much as the power plant auction, but once players get better then you have to start taking board position into account. In the early position, the trick is to figure out cheap points and choke points. In the early game, it's important to recognize if the board is linear (all regions in a row) or if there is clumping. If the regions are all linear, then the build order matters much more.

• If there are linear regions (A-B-C-D) I'd much rather be in one of the middle two. That way, during the phase shift even if I go last, I can always spread outside. If you are in one of the outer regions, you must build before your non-adjacent inner opponent (For example, if you are D, you need to go before B). Then again, this may not matter if region C is long (between B and D), but you'll need phase three to hit pretty quickly, or get boxed in. This changes based on # of players.

• If you are behind on powerplants (and normally I only consider permanents) then you should be on the lookout for grabbing a medium plant that may save you money over a turn or two, just to unclog the market. Especially if you go last, or the power plant you let onto the market isn't permanent.

• The 4 plants may be permanents, especially in a 5 or 6 (where you only need to power 15 or 14 cities). Even in a game with only 3-4 players (17), you can reach it with a four, as long as you get a seven and six. Possible. And the '4' plants often provide a good return. I'd still prefer a '5' plant, but sometimes you have to make do. '4's also work well with racing.

• Don't get fixated on free (wind/fusion) plants. The '13' plant early on is sometimes poisonous, particularly if you can't build your 3rd city the turn you get it. [If you only got a '1' plant on the first turn, you need one of the plants that powers at least 2 cities on the 2nd turn]. In the late game, the fusion (50 plant, powers '6' cities for free) is often a worse value than one of the methane plant (30 cost, three trash for 6) as trash is cheap, even if you are going to use it two turns.

There are several possible endgame, one trick is to recognize which one you are in:

• The race — Here one player will build up before anyone can power teh full compliment (sometimes in phase two!) This often happens if everyone passes on a non-permanent plant (to avoid opening up the market) for several turns. Once you've built up a warchest, the last place player can buy a medium plant and then build out, winning. If a player has a plant lead, sat for several turns

• The push — Someone builds to reasonably threaten an extra city or two, sending everyone into a scramble for one more city. It's sometimes reasonable to do this when you could end it if you'll be a city or two short (say, 16) because everyone else can build less cities and win the tiebreaker. You really need to have the 6s and 7s for this.

• The close game Sometimes it's just all about who can get the cheapest stuff. Not much to do here.

• The screw — Running out of resources can easily decide the game (at least knocking one player out). Being 'best' (going first) in the last turn can be dangerous, but most games will see methane/nuclear power relatively safe (and oil is often pretty reasonable). When considering what to do on the next to last turn, look at not only how much will be restocked, but what plants are up (or in the deck) that may take it. If a few coal plants are in the deck, you'll want to stock up on coal. [This also applies to the middle game for getting fuel cheaply]. Other tips for dealing with resources:

  1. Don't use critical resources on the penultimate turn. The difference between powering 11 and 15 cities isn't usually worth the resource cost anyway (last game I reminded myself, bu accidentally powered all of my plants anyway. Knocked myself out). Another nice aspect of holding onto a set of resources is that it allows you to safely upgrade (say from the 20-3coal-5city plant to the 42-3coal-7city plant) if the game turns into a push.

  2. Stockpile if you are in first place but can't finish. The only anti-stockpile reason is that you suspect one (or more) players will race the game this turn.

  3. Don't build up an extra city if it's safe (this often happens in 2-3 players). However, sometimes you have to build to prevent a lock out. Another time to build is if it allows you to be 1st or 2nd (instead of 2nd or 3rd). If you are already in first position, don't automatically say "I may as well build it now". The game may last an extra turn.

  4. In general, don't stockpile early. Wait until the shortage is imminent, or next turn the price will go up because of the plants that will be auctioned).

  5. Because resources are often so limited, the methane plants are worth a good premium early, and will often go for ridiculous amounts late (just because they can't be locked out). The player in first will often only have one 'safe' plant (unless he held resources).

Oh, one other trick I've seen a (very) successful BSW player pull. Hold off on a 2nd (or 3rd) plant, and just accept that you won't grow beyond 4 cities until stage two. You can build a reasonable stockpile, and the money you lose buy not growing is made up in resource costs (buying first) and not wasting money on a plant that will have to be thrown away later. But there's a lot to consider about doing that, and you may get trapped.

Update: Since I'm losing yet another game, perhaps you should ignore this post.

I played Power Grid and Around the World in 80 Days with a new group. (And it's nice to find another new group in San Antonio).

Power Grid has an evaluation problem: How much to bid on a plant? For example, in the early game there's only one reasonable plant available. The next plant (on the future market) is great. But the replacement plant (top card of the deck) may be terrible and show up instead of the great plant. Or it could be a plant that is good, but not great.

This probabilistic evaluation showed up several times last night. But I've noticed ... even if you can set a value that completely encompasses the risk of the future, the actual future will often be quite far away from the evaluation. [This issue shows up quite a bit in my work, too, and I want to explain it with technical terms like "Strongly Bimodal"]

To make this easier to explain, let's take the reverse. One good plant available, two players, and the next plant to fall into the market will be bad. However, there's a plant (or two) in the deck that are great and will go into the the market. [The rest of the plants wont, or are terrible].

The good plant will be bid up, of course. But each player will have to weigh the fact that they could get a great plant (cheaply) if they drop out. That lowers the premium that should be paid. So if you are willing to pay 45 (say), that's because you'd normally be willing to pay 50 (if the next plant was guaranteed to be terrible), but factor in a chance of something good happening. That's valued at five. (All numbers made up).

Here's the thing. I place the value of 'a good plant may show up' at five (or whatever). But once the card flips, I'll usually get zero (bad plant) or some high value (good plant bought at face value, instead of bid up). Call it forty. So the risk premium is five, but the actual value is never five.

This is like having an auction game where one item you can bid on is worth a zero, unless you roll 11+ on 2d6, then it's worth sixty. I don't think I'd look too kindly on such a game.

Power Grid has lots going on, but as we move up the learning curve, I expect more games to be won or lost on the turn of a card. [My last BSW game was a runaway when I got a good plant for face value on turn 3 or 4]. And this will be true even if everyone values the risk correctly. If the "turn of the card" premium is correctly evaluated and followed, some number of games are going to have one player jackpot or crap out. [The 'crap out' option leaves the other n-1 players all fighting evenly].

I've been thinking of Power Grid as a "Top Ten" game. (I've played 50 times on BSW, and probably 30+ face to face). But this fact has been gnawing at the back of my mind for a while.